Economy Sheds 54,000 Jobs as Unemployment Rate Jumps to 7.3%

Author: Julian Beltrame (The Canadian Press)

Posted: November 4 2011

Canada's jobs market took a turn for the worse last month, driving the unemployment rate up two notches to 7.3 per cent as the economy shed a massive 54,000 jobs overall, most of them in the manufacturing and construction trades.

The employment report from Statistics Canada was even more disturbing in the details, as all the losses and more were in the full-time category and in the goods producing sector.

In all 71,700 full-time jobs vanished during the month — Ontario alone shed 75,400 — as part-time employment rose slightly to make the headline number appear more palatable.

Economists had expected a weak October after September's surprising 61,000 pick-up, although that was somewhat inflated by returning education workers. But the consensus was for nothing worse than a moderate increase of 15,000.

Statistics Canada pointed out that employment is still up 237,000 over the last four years, but the last four months has seen virtually no increase in employment overall.

The October jobs report is the first significant economic indicator that appears to point to a downturn in the Canadian economy, which many had predicted following the upheaval in markets and plunge in consumer and business confidence surveys since August.

Recently, the Bank of Canada warned it believed the Canadian economy was cooling quickly and would record only a 0.8 per cent growth rate in the fourth quarter, of which October is the first month.

It also said that Europe had entered a mild recession and that the U.S. was also close to falling back into a slump.

The bulk of October's labour market setback was in the goods producing industries, with manufacturing registering a second consecutive month of losses, this time shedding 48,000 workers. That brings employment in the key sector 2.7 per cent lower in the last year.

Full Article

Post from: Gold News from Gold Editor

Economy Sheds 54,000 Jobs as Unemployment Rate Jumps to 7.3%

Greatest Profit Potential Of The Last Decade

Author: Toby Conner (Gold Scents)
Posted: May 3, 2011

After what should be a brief pause this week commodity markets will move into the greatest rally of the last decade. As usual I will stay focused on the precious metal markets. They have been the leaders during this entire move out of the `08 bottom and they will see the largest parabolic move of all commodities during the final leg up.
 
I've noted in the past that consolidation size is usually a good leading indicator of how large the following rally will be. Gold just consolidated for 5 months. That is going to produce a massive rally. It's already produced a large move and it's just started.

Full Article & Charts

Post from: Gold News from Gold Editor

Greatest Profit Potential Of The Last Decade

End Game

Author: Toby Conner (Gold Scents)
Posted: March 20, 2011

For months and months I've been warning investors that the dollar was going to come under extreme pressure sometime this year. I expected it to probably happen in the spring. Many people thought I was nuts. They were sure it was the Euro that would collapse, despite the fact that the EU is doing everything they can to protect their currency while Bernanke is doing everything he can to destroy ours.

On Friday the last confirmation occurred to signal the final collapse is now underway. On Friday the November yearly cycle low was violated. Cyclically this event is a major catastrophe.
We are now going to see the dollar get absolutely hammered for the next couple of months. The viability of the dollar as a currency will be questioned. There is a decent chance it may start to lose its status as the world's reserve currency. (Coincidentally about the time everyone becomes convinced the dollar is going to hyper inflate that will be the point where the three year cycle low will bottom and we will see an explosive rally, along the same lines as what happened in the latter half `08.)

This is what all the top pickers in gold and silver fail to understand. They are all trying to call a top based on charts without any understanding of what is happening to the currency.

Full Article

Post from: Gold News from Gold Editor

End Game

How to Gauge the Equities Market so you don’t buy too Early!

Author: Chris Vermeulen (Gold & Oil Guy)
Posted: March 16, 2011

Over the years I have found an indicator/trading tool which I find help spot intermediate trend reversals. I am going to quickly cover in this report. As most of you know the 20 simple moving average is a great gauge for telling you if you should be looking to buy the dips or sell the bounces. It’s an indicator I keep on the broad market charts like the SP500, Dow and NASDAQ.

The chart below shows the percentage of stocks trading above the 20 moving average. When this indicator falls below 20%, I make sure I start to protect my short positions with more aggressive protective stops and keep an eye on short term sentiment, volume ratios, options and price action as a bottom can take place at any time and very quickly. Bottoms tend to be more of an event happening quickly with a washout/panic selling day followed by a sharp rally, while intermediate market tops drag out taking weeks if not months to roll over and are very difficult to trade which is what we have been experiencing so far this year.

Mr. Jones once of my trading buddies who focuses strictly on Options Trading has been cleaning up with the current volatility making 21%, 50% and 67% returns on his last threes trades. This guy loves volatility and always seems to have an options strategy for every situation the market dishes out. Check out his service at OptionsTradingSignals.com

As you can see this indicator is currently trading in the lower reversal zone and I feel a bottom will form before March is over.

Full Article

Post from: Gold News from Gold Editor

How to Gauge the Equities Market so you don’t buy too Early!

Japan Disaster Damages Supply Chains

Author: Christopher Laird
Posted: March 15, 2011

The epic 9.1 quake, Japan’s largest in its history, and the devastating tsunami damaged Japan’s infrastructure so badly that manufacturing plants had to be shut down. But more worrisome is the endless destruction of bridges, roads, electrical, and ultimately the nuclear disaster in progress.

As I speak, they just tried to use helicopters to drop water on the reactors and the spent fuel rod storage. It was just cancelled due to high radiation…does this remind you of another disaster?? Beginning with a C and in Russia?
If Japan cannot control the situation at the reactors, they ultimately could spread a big fallout cloud across half of Japan. Reports out that some minute contamination appeared in a city over 50 miles away in the tap water.

We have maybe one week left or even days before a total evacuation of that area if things don’t improve quickly. 

They have a mere 50 workers trying to control 6 damaged reactors. It is not working so far. Each reactor normally has 100 workers. They have pulled back. If the many stored spent fuel rods burn, they already had one storage pool catch fire of these, it can release enough radiation in the atmosphere to make it worse than Chernobyl. It would definitely result in millions of evacuees. Get this, the storage pools for the spent rods are stored OVER the reactors! And the bulding roofs blew off!

After the disaster, the commodity complex got hammered; even so the Japanese stocks rallied 6 % last night. Gold sold off hard and this is typical in any major market crash as people sell gold to cover margins.

Reversal of Yen carry trade
But, importantly, is a repatriation of Japanese money from abroad and also out of markets and the Yen carry trade. Considering how huge the Yen carry trade is, and that any time there is deleveraging, the Yen rises, and the Yen is rising on and off again, indicates that if this reactor mess goes more out of control, we might see some more major market action in a week. Crash wise.

This also has implications for the ending of US QE2, as the Japanese are the second largest holder of USTs. But it’s not likely they would dump them. Nevertheless, they won’t be buying much. This once again forces the Fed to be the lender of last resort, and we will see in Summer if QE3 comes into being.

The commodity currencies are taking a bit of a hit, and this is due to the expected economic slowing and lower orders for natural resources from Japan.

We had forecast a realignment (weakening) of the AUD and CAD to the USD by Summer due to expected ending of US QE2 (the Fed’s purchase programs) which might or likely would cause some significant world market deleveraging.

Well, this Japan situation just moved that up several months.

Supply chain
What if Japan has to evacuate, and say a 100 mile radius is implemented?
Japan would basically shut down if that happened. And Japan is in the MIDDLE of every supply chain you can imagine, not only for US companies, but also for half of Asia.

Half the products are made with components from other countries and then assembled in Japan or China. If the supply chain is disrupted, and a mass evacuation would do it, then countless hits to world GDP will happen.

Apple already is delaying orders for new products from Japan as we speak for example.

Full Article

Post from: Gold News from Gold Editor

Japan Disaster Damages Supply Chains

Gold Not Even Close To Being Overvalued Yet - Doug Casey

Author: John McCrank (Reuters)
Posted: March 8, 2011

TORONTO - The investment legend said he wouldn't be surprised if gold hit $5,000 in the next couple of years as central banks continue to pump liquidity into the system but warned risks remain high in the sector.

Junior resource stocks, while no longer cheap, still present speculators with big opportunities as an unprecedented rally fuels precious metals and the companies that find them, said veteran investor Doug Casey.

Casey, a legendary investment guru who founded and chairs his own research firm, said he would not be surprised if gold hits $5,000 an ounce in the next couple of years, as paper currencies in the United States, Europe, and Japan drop in value.

"Central banks all over the world are creating trillions of currency units and that in turn is creating lots of bubbles," he said in an interview on the sidelines of the PDAC prospectors and developers convention in Toronto.

"It's very probable that they're going to ignite a bubble in gold and they're going to ignite a really wild bubble in small resource stocks."

Gold hit a record high of $1,444.40 an ounce on Monday as oil prices spiked on political instability in the Middle East and North Africa, and on worries that a downgrade of Greek debt could undermine confidence in the euro.

Casey said he believes that gold is not even close to overvalued. In his opinion, the current economic recovery will not last -- we are "in the eye of the hurricane," he says -- so gold's safe-haven appeal will only get stronger.

He said he also likes the prospects for silver, and that if there's a bubble anywhere in the commodities sector right now, it's likely in rare earths, a group of metals used to make electric car batteries and electronic devices.

A SIX-YEAR-OLD WITH A CHAINSAW

While there's a lot of money to be made in speculating on companies that seek out and extract precious metals, it's a high-risk sector that's not for everyone.

"For the average person to get into this sector and get overweight in this sector is like giving a six-year-old a chainsaw - it's very dangerous."

The stocks are volatile, the commodities fluctuate in value, they require huge upfront capital to extract, and there are huge political risks. Most explorers will fail.

Some, though, will find what they're looking for, and when they do, their value can grow by 10-fold or even 1,000-fold.

"You only need one of those if you have a halfway descent position in it, once in a lifetime," he said.

His Phoenix-based firm recommends prudent investors put 90 percent of their portfolios lower-risk sectors, like short-term bonds, dividend-paying stocks, and precious metals and gold, while putting the remainder into speculative investments.

Full Article

Post from: Gold News from Gold Editor

Gold Not Even Close To Being Overvalued Yet – Doug Casey

Is Gold Poised For Breakout?

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: March 2, 2011

LONDON - With gold hovering around record price levels again, does the recent surge suggest a breakout to much higher levels is imminent.

After a month or so in the doldrums after hitting a record high in December, the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) unrest has launched the gold price towards yet new highs, and at the time of writing the yellow metal was trading just above $1,430 an ounce in Europe.

In OTC trading in the U.S. yesterday a new all-time high had been breached temporarily. 

Some observers, notably Julian Phillips of Gold Forecaster who is a regular writer on Mineweb, sees the latest move in the gold price as being a long-awaited breakout and now expects to see a move to new highs between $1,500 and $2,000 this year with higher prices thereafter.

Other pro-gold commentators will be even more bullish, but there will also be plenty of naysayers out there They just cannot recognise that the movement in the gold price defies what is nowadays deemed as normal investment logic because gold is hard-wired into the psyche of a large part of the world's population as the perennial wealth store and a hedge against bad times.  When this coincides with external events like the MENA ‘uprisings' the pressure pushing the gold price up can be extremely strong.

Gold demand is currently being skewed by burgeoning offtake in the East - notably in China and India and other South and Far Eastern nations - where a sea change has been taking place in the wealth and investment potential of the population.  This has been  brought on by enormous advances in GDP and a corresponding growth in the numbers of people entering the potential gold-buying market, and in their disposable incomes.

Probably nowhere is this being seen to more effect than China.  Anecdotal reports indicated a tremendous surge in gold buying ahead of the Chinese New Year in early February - and by all accounts this is continuing after the New Year as the population is becoming increasingly nervous about inflation, which Chinese economists, seriously worried about the ‘export' effects on prices of the U.S. Quantitative Easing programs, view as Bernanke-inspired.  There are reports of long lines developing again at shopping outlets selling gold and gold jewellery with demand running hugely ahead of the same time last year - a year in which Chinese demand reached record levels.

Full Article

Post from: Gold News from Gold Editor

Is Gold Poised For Breakout?

Paul van Eeden: Finding Value Amidst Volatility

Author: Karen Roche (The Gold Report)
Posted: February 23,2011

Cranberry Capital Inc. President Paul van Eeden still favors the natural resources sector above all others because they are "absolutely central to our standard of living, our quality of life and the technological progress we've made." Despite the dangers, frothiness of equities and absence of fundamentals to support current valuations, he says, "there are always opportunities in the market. . .you just have to recognize them." Find out where Paul believes investors can find good value in the current market in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report.

The Gold Report: Paul, in January 2008, you saw the impending crash and told investors to sell everything. Three years later, what are your feelings about the economy?

Paul van Eeden: A lot has changed in three years and the recession was not as deep or severe as I had expected. Many people have been adversely affected, no doubt, although it could've been much worse.

I'm not an apologist for central bankers or the Federal Reserve, and I don't believe in fiat money or that the Fed has a role to play in our economy. But in the context that they exist, and given Bernanke's job description, I think he did a good job during the crisis. Of course, what we really need is for the system to get flushed clean. But that would be far less attractive to the majority of the population to hold much hope for its occurrence. After all, a democracy is really nothing more than mob rule; and in this case, the Fed saved the mob.

TGR: Many people believe all the Fed did was kick a larger depression down the road.

PvE: I agree that it is merely postponing the inevitable, but that is the Fed's job. It's nothing new—it's what central bankers do. While central bankers are part of the banking system that debases our currency and, therefore, is partly to blame for some of our troubles, it certainly isn't solely to blame.

Part of the blame also lies with all of us—people who buy cars and houses they can't afford or go on shopping sprees with credit cards they cannot repay. Just because we have fiat money and people manipulating it doesn't mean we have to live above our means. It's very convenient to blame Bernanke for debasing our currency, banks for making us offers that sound too good to refuse and credit card companies for issuing cards to people who aren't creditworthy. But does that mean we have to partake in those activities? No. We have to take personal responsibility for our actions. Only by taking responsibility for our actions can we figure a way out of this. Stated another way, as long as we rely on others to solve our problems and live above our means with the expectation that somehow, someone will fix it for us later, we will never get out of this mess. It will only get worse.

TGR: You mentioned that you don't think the situation will get much worse. If it's not much worse, what are we postponing? The recovery?

PvE: Yes. The pain could've been worse, and I think we avoided that. But what we really postponed is the recovery. The way I see it, the central bank robs our future living standards in exchange for a higher living standard today by debasing our currency and reducing the value of our future savings and earning capacity. We do the same thing as individuals by taking on too much debt. When you borrow, all you're doing is spending today what you hope to earn in the future. You're trading a higher lifestyle today for a lower quality of life in the future.

Full Article

Post from: Gold News from Gold Editor

Paul van Eeden: Finding Value Amidst Volatility

QE2: The Road To A Gold Standard

Author: Jim Willie CB
Posted: February 22, 2011

What an incredible few weeks with global uprisings! It is not all too surprising that social eruptions over food prices come from the Arab world, since they spend up to 75% to 80% of income on food for basic needs. What proof that the global economy is not a closed system! The QE and QE2 initiatives have spread like a powerful virus, leading to global commodity prices heading upward and quickly. Even cotton is up 170% in price. The USFed has suffered even more credibility blows, calling the global food price inflation unrelated to its QE2 policy. It is obviously connected. What we have is the Western Big Banks protected from fraud prosecution, redeemed for their broken toxic balance sheets at government expense, leading to a global price tag in the form of foodstuffs and commodities. Worse, the USGovt and USFed continue to be run by fraud kings, who continue to maintain a tight strangehold on the purse of the state and the Printing Pre$$ itself that produce deficit spending and fresh phony money. Ironically, the punishment for the US banking system is chronic unending insolvency. Despite the largesse to prop them up, fund their channels, redeem their toxic debt, enrich their executive packages, they remain the same Zombie banks from late 2008. Tragically, the USGovt will continue to fund their black holes instead of restructuring like Iceland, which is back on its feet. The battle cry of Too Big To Fail for the Big US Banks is a call to sustain the corruption and to ensure no recovery ever!!

In the meantime, fast rising gasoline prices and higher crude oil price, along with a host of industrial metals like copper, have lifted the entire cost structure of the USEconomy, and the global economy since all are priced in US$ terms. The banking officials act like keeping US wages down it a noble objective with a national purpose. It is indeed a noble purpose, as the nobility remain with money, but the masses will not be capable of effectively dealing with the cost squeeze. Businesses not well placed within the Fascist Business Model will also fare poorly. The list of US companies is long that have complained of an important cost squeeze. Expect many businesses to suffer a vanished profit margin in the next few months. The process has already begun, in fact well along. Across the oceans, the untold story on the geopolitical front is not the billboard message given by the obedient US press. The Arab world does not simply demonstrate on the city streets as a result of higher cost for hummus, bread, and cooking oil. The Arab people sense the demise of the Anglo Empire. They sense the end of the US & UK support for their tyrants and royals, who have enriched themselves and their families. The Arab people sense a weakening of their leaders and their system of government, often harsh and repressive. The food prices only serve as a lightning rod to gather the people together. What is happening is the defacto Petro-Dollar Standard is crumbing ever so slowly. Many eyes are fixed on Saudi Arabia, where the royals are increasingly fearful. All hell breaks loose if the Saudis lose their grip of the Petro-Dollar device, by which the OPEC crude oil is sold in USDollar terms. THE PETRO-DOLLAR IS THE LACE ON THE CORSET THAT SUPPORTS THE THE ANGLO-AMERICAN FRONTISPIECE. Remove the Petro-Dollar practice in global crude oil sales, and the United States becomes isolated, its currency rejected, since it cannot stand on its own. Observe the US trade gap and escalating federal deficit.

Full Article

Post from: Gold News from Gold Editor

QE2: The Road To A Gold Standard

Canadian Gold Miners Expected To Come Back Strong In 2011

Author: Claire Sibonney (Reuters)
Posted: February 14, 2011

TORONTO - Analysts expect Canadian gold mining stocks to shrug off a recent pull back in prices and perform well in 2011 as economic uncertainty and central bank demand help support bullion.

Canadian gold mining stocks should shrug off a recent pullback to glitter again in 2011, with economic uncertainty and central bank demand supporting the bullion price and helping to drive earnings higher.

Analysts say risks, including the uneven U.S. economic recovery, Europe's debt problems and creeping inflation in emerging markets, should all help gold XAU= regain momentum. The precious metal hit a record high in 2010 but has fallen 4 percent year-to-date to below $1,360.

"We came into 2011 overbought ... (but) on the downside, you have to take out $1,000 to eliminate the bullish trend," said Ted Whitehead, senior portfolio manager at Manulife Asset Management.

Whitehead thinks the bullion price could reach a record $1,500 an ounce if the U.S. Federal Reserve resorts to more quantitative easing, effectively printing money to buy government debt, to try to boost the economy.

The Toronto Stock Exchange's gold subsector SPTTGD, home to industry giants Barrick Gold Corp (ABX.TO: Quote) and Goldcorp (G.TO: Quote), rallied a stunning 26 percent in 2010, outpacing a 14.4 percent gain in the broader market. .GSPTSE

But as signs of accelerating global growth surfaced, demand for safe-haven assets such as gold eased, prompting investors to move to riskier, more cyclical assets such oil, base metals and financials.

The gold subsector, which also includes Kinross Gold (K.TO: Quote), Agnico-Eagle (AEM.TO: Quote), Eldorado Gold (ELD.TO: Quote), Yamana Gold (YRI.TO: Quote), is down almost 9 percent year-to-date.

Yet many analysts and money managers think the decline will be shortlived, with gold stocks meeting or beating broader returns in the market this year.

Ani Markova, a precious metals fund manager at AGF Investments, said that, even though bullion has appreciated a staggering 400 percent over the last 10 years, the bull market for the commodity still has legs.

"This has been a phenomenal move, but I don't think it's over yet ... I don't see that fundamentally we have a very solid global recovery to be comfortable to say we're going to have significant increases in interest rates."

Full Article

Post from: Gold News from Gold Editor

Canadian Gold Miners Expected To Come Back Strong In 2011